"Even in 2013 you should not do without gold"
Gold as an asset protection under the sign of the weakness of the euro, a possible course of the gold price in 2013, the eternal myth of the "gold bubble". Only three subjects in the full interview with interviewer (FH) Rudolf Brenner, director of philoro EDELMETALLE GmbH
Interviewer: How can I protect my assets have saved the best possible way? Given the continued weakness of the euro, many investors are looking for safe investments. In a survey of interviewers over 70 percent voted for gold as a safe haven for their savings. What our users can expect in terms of gold in the next few years?
Rudolf Brenner: For 2013, you can consider an increase in the gold price, up to the summer course levels may be achieved by the $ 1,800 per troy ounce. The main reasons lie in the continued negative real interest rates and the continuing strong gold purchases by private investors and central banks in particular. Will have a positive addition to the robust economic growth in China, which causes an immediate increase in gold purchases. Only the demand from India may malfunction due to the increase in import tax slightly weaker. Fear also purchases in connection with the euro crisis will be based on the relative relaxation time being
In the long term, gold is still in a phase of remonetarisation. This is seen most strikingly through a study of the Steinbeis University Berlin. This showed that only seven percent of the world's outstanding gold stocks held by households and the German Bundesbank are. This corresponds to a current equivalent of about 493 billion euros. The German households have a total of about 8,000 tons of physical gold.
As the main motives for a gold investment in long-term value and long-term investment horizon and the immediate physical possession was given. 96 percent of individuals who have chosen in the past for a gold investment are satisfied with their decision and stated that to make further investments.
The study shows clearly that the popularity of gold at German individuals remained valid. Physical possession has increased in the past two years, the precious metal has still the safe haven status.
To produce a reversal of this trend, the following factors would be necessary:
Real interest rates would remain for an extended period over + three percent,
Gold would have compared to other asset classes, a significant overvaluation,
a fundamental change in the debt policy of OECD countries would occur,
the end of further stimulus measures by central banks are imminent
China and India would have to slip into a deep recession,
a strong appreciation of the dollar occur
Producers operate mine massive hedging.
Interviewer: Many statistics indicate that in 2013 the price of gold is up considerably. How influential do you think the gold price actually seasonal effects?
Mag Burner: Historically, the months of May and September have a special meaning for the gold market. On average, these months are some of the demand-and the strongest performance.
Even at the end of the gold price gains traditionally support. This is mainly due to annual recurring events such as:
the wedding season in India.
the ongoing celebrations in China in October, or the Chinese New Year earlier this year.
the end of Ramadan in September, where traditionally gold gifts are made.
the fall, when the jewelry industry of Western countries began, stocks with a view to fill up on Christmas.
Therefore, the fourth point and the 1st Quarter of the year the best performances for gold, in the 2nd Quarter the price significantly and often corrected in the 3rd Quarterly often a sideways trend is visible.
Exemptions may also be taken into account in the gold anyway. The season is only one of many factors that have an impact on prices. Gold is often prone to rapid and shear-like increases, which can certainly occur at seasonal uninteresting times. A seasonally favorable season makes such an increase, however, and likely more.
Despite these limitations, one can assume that traders and speculators or jewelry buyers that occur in gold and silver seasonality for buying and selling decisions can be helpful.
Interviewer: Gold is given as much importance as the annual production is so small in relation to the inventory. This stability and security one of the key prerequisites for the confidence of many investors?
Mag burner: The best way to describe the theme of new production based on the current situation of the gold mines.
The production curve of mine is almost the same bell curve. This is also reflected in the current yield with respect to the gold content which is found in the ores. These are in decline for decades - by extension increases the need to overburden many times. Additionally complicate the impurities in the ore, the distribution of the gold, which is becoming more fine-grained. All this finally calls an increased energy consumption, which is necessary for gold recovery forth.
Several studies predict that gold production in the near future
increasingly come from secondary sources such as copper deposits is.
Scientists speak analogous to the oil and the gold of peak gold scenario. Thus the maximum of gold production in the years 2027 to 2044 reached, each in moderate annual steps. Then the production falls off rapidly, and can not thereafter be replaced by secondary sources.
The situation of the gold mines can boast besides decreasing gold content in the ore and the following problem areas:
People: there is a lack of skilled workers. Through the employment of geologists and specialists rising personnel costs.
Procurement: The cost of procurement of goods and services for the promotion are also rising rapidly.
Power: increased energy costs.
Permits: Mining licenses are becoming increasingly expensive.
Projects: Reserves can hardly or only partially be replaced.
Politics: increasing state intervention, environmental regulations or new taxes to other people.
Interviewer: "Only when the masses want gold at any price, begins the mania phase" - a sentence of Goldmann Eichelburg of hartgeld.com Let this phase already the 2013th?
Mag burner: In 2012, the gold price has moved in the result almost sideways, and he remains in a range around the $ 1,650 per troy ounce and traded far from historic highs to $ 1,950. The reason why the mania phase is probably not imminent, surely the fact that currently no cash but "cash flow" is in demand. This vast sums invested in high-yield corporate and emerging market bonds, in Italian and Spanish government bonds and in stocks with an attractive dividend.
Although gold is currently found in many investors' portfolios as a diversification element, but has no positive short-term trend and is therefore not increased by commercial operators. Gold may remain for several months in a trading range, with a range from 1600 to 1800 USD.
In the long term you can still remain very optimistic, Gold is the only hard currency, and the more the general worsening debt situation, the more useful it will be to get exposure to gold.
A parabolic phase of the gold price rises, there will be definitely. In 2013, this will not occur, however, in all probability, to the economic environment is still stable.
Interviewer: rumors about a so-called "gold bubble" are naturally avoided in periods of strong bull markets barely. Expect in the coming months, another wave of attempts to suppress the gold price?
Mag burner: There is much evidence that is currently not part of central banks and other market participants intervened against gold. Firstly, central banks have become in recent years to net buyers, on the other interventions could be expensive because of the gold market has become much more liquid.
Both reasons pending against manipulations. Those who fear a distortion of market prices by public authorities should first look at the prices of government bonds.
Nevertheless, central banks have intervened since the 90s systematically against the rise in gold prices. One hand, to mitigate the inflationary expectations, on the other hand to strengthen the U.S. dollar. Confidence in the U.S. dollar was particularly important, since a credit-based currency had to be protected against the toughest competitors gold. Even in the financial crisis, it would have been disastrous if the price of gold would have broken up. Few would have believed that the financial system can be saved.
Although the degree is greatly reduced, so is it still the rental business of central banks intervened partly still in the gold market. The leasing of gold was for decades a lucrative affair for both central as well as commercial banks. By the abundance of gold stocks have been thrown on the market, the price has suffered greatly.
Interviewer: What are your opinion, the worst mistakes that investors make their investments in precious metals at the moment?
Mag Burner: Many players want, especially when Erstveranlagung in precious metals, timen the right moment perfectly. This is impossible. When you meet the decision to invest a portion of its assets in precious metals, the date of the entry is irrelevant. Precious metals have a diversification effect, reduce the volatility of the overall assessment and should therefore be included in any balanced portfolio.
It is highly recommended that investment in physical gold to give preference towards a derivative form. Upon physical assessment should ideally be put on a mixed portfolio of coins and bars with different sizes. This makes partial sales and cost saving restructuring costs in the sale of a larger unit of gold. In the area of investment coins you should definitely invest in products with a worldwide reputation as Krugerrand, Maple Leaf or Vienna Philharmonic. These coins are very liquid and are around the globe, at any time and sold.
The value of gold bullion lies especially in the fact that for larger units a lesser charge is payable for the material price. With gold bullion you should make sure that they have exclusively Feingold character and come from an established manufacturer.
For silver, it is important to note that in Germany coins (yet!) are taxed at seven percent and bars with 19 percent. From 2014, also bullion coins with 19 percent will be taxed. In Austria, silver for investment purposes taxed uniformly at 20 percent. Diversification in silver is primarily useful. However, it should be observed that silver is also an industrial metal and the price can vary according to the economic cycle.
Gold and silver mining stocks, I would recommend due to the increased volatility experienced investors only. If you still want to get exposure to this area, we recommend the purchase of a mutual fund.
Interviewer: What is your personal investment strategy in terms of gold in 2013?
Mag Burner: principle, one should first of all ask the question, how one's assets is structured and to what extent it makes sense to invest in precious metals to achieve a diversification effect. This may not necessarily depend on the market environment. On our website, we have conducted a study on the diversification of precious metals to the total investment. Gold has. Especially over long periods, due to the negative correlation to other asset classes such as bonds, stocks, real estate or a reducing effect on the variation in the overall assessment Especially in highly volatile phases reduces the fluctuations in the gold portfolio. There is no statistically significant correlation between gold and economic data. The main reason would probably be that gold is not subject to liquidity risk, market risk is lower and has no credit risk. Gold is - unlike stocks or bonds - subject to any obligations or promises. We believe it is imperative for at philoro, a certain amount of at least ten percent of assets to invest in precious metals.
Also for 2013, you should get exposure to a balanced allocation and not to miss out on gold.