Sunday, 26 May 2013

Gold price decline and Krugerrand shortage

ETF gold holdings to two-year low
Gold price decline and Krugerrand shortage

Since 2000 the price of gold has only one direction. He gets twelve years in a row and seven times at times to over $ 1,920 per troy ounce. Then the air is out of a sudden, the prices tumble, the luster faded. Charttechnisch is now quite in disarray. At the same time, however, the question of what is going on in the Krugerrand.


Gold ounce 1386.60
Large investors throw more gold in a high arc from their repositories. One end of the descent is not in sight. Fact, the consistently high demand from retail investors for coins and bullion nothing changes. By the fall in prices in recent months gold from the perspective of institutional investors have lost much of its luster, says Frank Sound Berger, chief commodities analyst at LBBW. "Finally, a twelve-year upward trend has come to an end. Therefore the belief among investors is low, it goes up again soon."

Chart from a technical perspective, the gold price could drop to $ 1,320 per troy ounce (31.1 grams). If this mark is not reached, a decrease of up to $ 1,260 is possible.

Since 2000 the price of gold had only one direction. He got twelve years in a row and seven times at times at $ 1920.30 per troy ounce. This was due mainly to the financial crisis and the debt crisis and its impact. Investors fled out of fear of a collapse of the world economy and runaway inflation in the "safe haven". Currently, the precious metal costs about 1380 dollars or 1072 euros.

Fall and fall of the gold ETF holdings

Speculatively oriented investors trade gold futures mostly about or with the help of listed funds (ETFs). This buy or sell the appropriate amount of the precious metal. The world's largest fund of its kind is the SPDR Gold, whose gold stocks are currently at 33.164 million troy ounces, or 1031 tons.

The precious metal holdings of all gold ETFs add up to 65.51 million troy ounces, or 1944 tons. This is the lowest level since April 2011. In December, the ETF holdings were increased to a record 76.177 million ounces. Since it is almost exclusively down. In April, there were 21 days in a row even - negative record.

Run on coins and bullion

For private investors, gold coins and bullion, however remain the first choice because of the late effects of financial and debt crisis. "The fundamental environment has not changed," said Robert Hartmann, Managing Director of Pro Aurum Gold dealer. "Real interest rates are negative, and the central banks are expanding the money supply. Actually, the precious metals would be significantly higher." The real interest rate means the interest rate minus the inflation rate.

"Since early May, the interest is somewhat subsided," Hartmann says. "But it is still 50 to 70 percent above the level in February." For this reason, it remains difficult to meet the demand. Bottlenecks admit it, among other things the Krugerrand, although these coins are currently being characterized in three-shift operation.

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Also in Asia is physical gold at a premium. Last Thursday, the price of bullion climbed in Hong Kong and Singapore at record highs. In China - the world's second largest gold market in India - indicated the price of the futures spreads compared to the comparable amount of bullion or coins also indicate a strong demand. The Shanghai-traded futures rose on Tuesday by up to 4.2 percent to a three-week high of 280.88 yuan (35.60 euros) per gram