Friday, 5 October 2012
krugerrand gold coins as investment asset management
If the gold speaks, then the world is silent!
If you move out now, wants to save his savings and discover what is really happening with our money, one must first be clear that there is less gold, but our current credit money, which of its value solely on the trust population based.
Guest Post on the topic of gold: Mack & Weise asset management.
After the gold price from its lows around 250 U.S. dollars in 1999, coming in early September 2011 reached a development peak of more than 1,900 U.S. dollars and within a few months corrected up to just under $ 1,500, herein saw quite a few, as well as the "Oracle of Omaha," Warren Buffett, the end of an "irrational exaggeration". Buffett even warned all investors urgently so to stay away from gold, "What the wise man at the beginning makes the fool maketh the end" and read as now recently on Spiegel Online was, sees the critical financial author Malte Heynen " who set out to rescue their savings, and discovered what really happens with our money, "as even the gold"! oldest bubble of the world ", for" Gold gets its value only by the faith of the people of its value "
Quite a few financial experts are of the opinion that gold was given its volatility is a very speculative investment, it does not create value and, above all, unlike real estate or shares get no income. Given the well in relation to the total demand very manageable industrial importance of the sense of the gold is for many pundits therefore only only to women, Russian onion spiers or picture frame for "Shine" to bring.
Founded then, is the rise in the gold price last 11 years in truth on the "biggest mistake of mankind"? Should we the following take frequently to read press reports of that forms gold bubble now an opportunity to daueroptimistischen and greedy "Gold Fools" all our precious metal to a driven to lofty heights Price "reassign" before even this bubble bursts? And, anyway, is not gold just a "myth" of long ago?
German buy 55.5 tons of gold
According to statistics from the World Gold Council, but the Germans bought the first half of 2012 for about 3 billion U.S. dollars in total 55.5 tonnes of gold, what makes it the undisputed number 1 in Europe. But what presents itself at first sight as yet quite spectacular, reduced later than a second look ... a touch of nothing! Distributed to the 60 million Germans aged between 20-80 years is simply the arithmetic fact, only an amount of about 40 euros, or 6.67 euros a month, which can be at any rate in this country speak more than just a hobby of a genuine interest in investment .
But the world also private demand for gold in the last three years has remained relatively constant, so that in any case to see this side of anything forming of a bubble is panic buying. This raises will have only the question of whether ... maybe a good handful of central bankers are personal to "greedy fools" mutated? Because, after the central banks in total for two decades on the seller's side were, and they turn of the millennium the gold price of around 250 U.S. dollars even shut expressed on a 20-year low (Gordon Brown-deep) have this as part of the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 clearly gained new insights. Thus, the central banks in the world that year were nevertheless already disappearing very impressive 77 tonnes of gold in their vaults, and then take 2011 significantly with around 440 tons. But this highest purchase volume since 1964 could be surpassed in the course of 2012 yet, but the central banks have purchased until the end of August already 262 tonnes of the yellow precious metal. Why in the world but now of some central banks, including China, Mexico, Russia and Turkey to rise again into gold, when there is no benefit?
May give these central bankers "have" become one of those men who, as billions of people previously understood, that gold maintains its value for 6,000 years almost exclusively due to a particular characteristic? ... Gold is money - and nothing else!
World unsecured money
At this all-important fact changes by the fact that we are already more than 40 years living in a world of unmet money, is nowhere in the gold legal tender. But whatever may be gold, as they have for thousands of years, yet today are exchanged across all religious, cultural and geographical boundaries, because it just has all the characteristics that must have good money: It's just, perfectly divisible and especially forever!
Even if the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, the question of Ron Paul, a Republican congressman, "whether because gold is money" recently vehemently denied, so it is natural already asked why the Fed will ever hold gold which is also yet just like all the other central banks of the world on the asset side accounted for as reserve currency ...?
Responded to the German Federal Court demanded counting of stocks held in New York, London and Paris German gold reserves said the current speaker of the German Bundesbank, Michael Best, compared to RTL television on 22/08/2012 something about the "gold-brings-no- interest "experts do not want to think. "In the event of a currency crisis, which we do not want to wish all, it would be important to get foreign exchange. And you only get when you can gold deposit as collateral. Therefore, we hold gold from friendly banks in democratic states. "
Despite the fact that friends of enemies quickly, and democracies from dictatorships can be quickly, there are still a reality: Gold is apparently not just any money, but obviously the best bid. Even the former U.S. Federal Reserve chief and "Magician of the markets," Alan Greenspan was aware, at least as a young scientist: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. [...] Paper money, in extreme cases, taken by anyone against. Gold on the other hand is always accepted. "
Trust holds the system together
Now, if you so move out, wants to save his savings and discover what is really happening with our money, one must first be clear that there is less gold, but our current credit money that its value solely on the trust the population was. And based on the experience of humanity with all those who always thought only good with them and feel their emperors, kings, princes, leaders, and "democratic" governments, this trust is never voluntarily. Therefore, the lending of money with its abuse and implemented the necessary confidence value garantie always be "infused" with a steady "Stability" propaganda and state coercion.
Sun certified for example, State basket-statistician that the general price level in the euro area since the introduction of the common currency in 1999 was on average increased by "only" 2% per year, according to the official definition of the ECB actually means "stable prices" . Thus the euro by the monetary authority is attested but a hardness in the truest sense of the word is the hardness. Because of the past 100 Euro purchasing power of the "currency stability" at the end of the 13th His year, apparently just 77 euros left. This did not prevent the former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet last year, in the midst of the crisis in the euro zone, but not ridiculing systematically dispossessed population with a paean to the "success" of the euro since its introduction, because "the Euro has delivered what was expected of him -. price stability "
And if the prices then in spite of the heroic "stability struggle" the central bankers - and the European Statistics Flexibilizer - officially times stronger than the originally anticipated increase 2% per year, know the "experts" to our Be (un) ruhigung also exactly that it must be, for example, the rising wages and the complete surprise skyrocketing commodity prices. To rising prices are always higher prices to blame - because you have to first get on it once.
It is indicative of the prevailing confusion of mind in today's economics profession that theories that explain inflation with inflation can be just as concerned with the Nobel Prize, as the opposite theory of economist Milton Friedman, who discovered common sense follows that inflation " always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. "
But according to today's common doctrines, it would be a coincidence that, for example, confirming the Teuro-feeling of the population, in addition to the M3 in fact just the prices of goods of daily life since introduction of the euro have more than doubled, and, accordingly, more than half of the former purchasing power over the information printed on the Euro, a fantasy bridges "foster trust" ("Cowgirl Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value! - zero") in which the French philosopher Voltaire described nirvana volatilized has .
Gold knows no inflation
While today's central banks have been able to be able to create money out of thin air in any quantity, gold does not this inflation. Annually from the mine production is only about 1.5% of the precious metal to come on to the market, and consequently gold could retain its purchasing power over the years in every country on Earth.
Especially the global central banks, all of which justify its existence with the maintenance of price stability must, in fact, apply much more than those institutions that failed in the history of the most miserable, yet still have the final say. The result of the action of all central banks is considered only for short periods of similarly dire as that of the U.S. Federal Reserve since its inception. She managed the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar from 1913 to the present to reduce by as much as 97%! That the beneficiaries of this money fraud are the ones who keep the inflation of money first in the hand, of course, betrays none of the money and economics experts voluntarily, because "people would understand our money system, then we would have a revolution before tomorrow morning." (Henry Ford) .
"If the Fed!"
U.S. Congressman Ron Paul calls for decades to abolish the institution, which has refused a money monopolist since March 2006, even reaching the consequences of their work, the report (exploding) M3. He's about nothing less than the closure of that powerful organization that cares in secret for inflation, and for launching the policy of cheap credit to financial bubbles, such as the Internet or the real estate bubble, must be held accountable: It's the (private) American Federal Reserve.
Given the momentous "work" of the U.S. Federal Reserve Paul recommends for years for a return to gold-backed currency, just as the founding fathers had once written. He was initially just a lone voice in the wilderness, so worried now, along with Paul more and more Republican politicians around the dwindling value of the U.S. dollar, so that now even tentative plans are ripe for decision, as once before in 1980, again a "Gold Commission "convene, which will again consider a return to gold-backed currency. But "that is not of course happen, because the idea is daft," said the stock exchange expert Financial Times Germany Jens Korte succinctly these developments, and thus joins the phalanx one of those mainstream economists, growth politicians and central bankers, the gold master their John Maynard Keynes, loyal following, reflexively as a "barbarous relic" disqualify.
This - rather limited - antigold arguments the Keynesians, however, are ultimately only part of the above interest-directed lending money-propaganda designed to prevent, to question that someone comes up with the idea, why is there a government-prescribed socialist money monopoly of the central banks, which population "no alternative" forces, which now circulating - to use inflation money - fraudulent in itself.
Gold and silver, however, required such "support" never, but they were always in the currency history. As a result of a market process to generally accepted and estimated cash For example, neither had the more than 900-year existence of the Roman gold coin solidus, the 12th in the Century, even as European "reserve currency", acted politically planned, even the legendary global gold standard of the 19th Century.
Even though we live in different times, so there is still simply no reason to believe that the gold standard of today should not work just as well as in the non-inflationary, literally "good old days" before 1 World War II. It is now almost forgotten that in the heyday of the gold standard in the early 20th Century 50 nations, all leading industrialized countries, part of a monetary system, which were made without the interest rate is no longer indispensable planner or economic growth accelerator for prosperity. This money expert Alan Greenspan assessed in 1966 as well: "When gold is favored accepted by most or all nations as a means of exchange, it promotes and an unimpeded free gold standard, the global division of labor and international trade."
And even though the gold standard in the words of Ludwig von Mises, a representative of the school of Austrian economics, "certainly not perfect" was, in part because it "in human affairs anyway Nothing Perfect", the latter would be the world standard "in the age of capitalism, growing prosperity, freedom and democracy. [...] He accompanied the unprecedented progress of Western liberalism, all states to forge a unity of free nations, which worked together peacefully. "
Although it declared the gold opponents admit to this day do not want the gold standard ceased to exist solely because the governments of the monetary system in 1914 took possession of (and subsequently ruined it), just because the first World War with good money simply could not be funded, so the conclusion of Mises today is nothing to add to new knowledge: "No one was able to find something more satisfying than the gold standard!"
Of course, in addition to wars would even today, built on credit and sand trillion costing welfare states in a gold standard never been affordable, so it is no wonder that the ruling prosperity-on tick-preacher in the world evoke the "inevitability" of their loan money system must. It is more than remarkable that Alan Greenspan in 1966, decades before he in his capacity as U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, with its policy of cheap credit put the fire to the fuse of our monetary system, himself recognized that it needed "financial policy of the welfare state makes that there is no way for owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret that lies behind the demonization of gold by the advocates of the welfare state! "
Largest debt crisis in history
Been five years since we have to deal with the broken out in the Western welfare states, banking and debt crisis. This largest debt crisis in the history of mankind is ultimately the direct result of a lived for the past 40 years of economic ideology that promotes growth on credit. And although almost all welfare states observed resulting exponentially growing public debt in its financing now no longer different from a Ponzi scheme, governments and parliaments assign monetary policy thinking bans, while the "independent" central banks are trying to approve the system with its policy of credit as long as possible to keep them alive.
It can therefore not at all surprised by, that to meet the planned economic policies and interventions by central banks, the indebtedness problem with trillions of new (!) Debt want, the situation has not improved, but have only worsened further. To print money, bank losses "no alternative" to the benefit of the population shift to the population, to legalize accounting fraud or "flexible" the law simply may perhaps buy time, but in the long term, all of these measures, of course, only increase the height of fall.
Thus, the U.S. economist Anna Jacobson Schwartz ruled as early as 2010, the economics professor and current Fed chief, the obvious example of the ECB chief Draghi that "Bernanke is a man without a plan. He could think of only two numbers categories: zero or trillion. Zero - due to its zero interest rate policy. And trillions - "because of his mega-support programs for banks.
Concluding, it's this unfortunate and distressing "rescue" policies of recent years summarize just that the "zeros" in the central banks of the "zeros" in the governments and banks in their perplexity over five years just always new fiat, free help 12 zeros before the decimal point, to push for zero interest rates - to paraphrase Goethe's Faust: "I'm tired of the eternal How and when, there is no money, well, so creating 'it for."
But with this fresh money to solve liquidity problems even in the best case, but not the solvency problems that undermine the financial system currently in its foundations! As such, it is then no longer a surprise that as a sad result of this "without alternatives" crisis policy now mutually reinforcing bankrupt states and bankrupt banks have turned into a special economic zone for systemically important madness - guaranteed by the printing press.
Tax money wasted
The madness, the financial Hasadeure in the banks who need to lose their money to the irresponsible financing of U.S. subprime or Greek bonds would all have to "rescue" with taxpayers' money to, is really nothing more than one of the vilest forms of - doomed - real socialism, privatized the gains and losses are socialized. In a functioning capitalism, where democratic constitutional states guarantee the property rights of its citizens without alternative, it would be impossible that still bank (est) and hedge fund managers in the shelter of the systemic importance of their disguised as bonuses and bonuses tax money billion can carry home.
The solution to the debt crisis is therefore certainly be different than it is today, would like to present all the "pre-crisis status quo" defender and welfare state creditors. It will come without the "voluntary departure from another credit (debt) expansion," inevitably to the Ludwig von Mises in 1922 described "final and complete disaster in the affected currency system," ... As always in the history of money that can be created "out of nothing"!
If, however, believes that writing history only other generations should bear in mind the near-bank tower (bank run) in 2008, the "literally at the last second by a guarantee statement of savings by Chancellor Merkel and her then-Finance Minister Steinbrück ( We say to savers and depositors that their deposits are safe. this too is a the federal government. ") once again averted. But the now almost inflationary seeming third confirmation of the guarantee statement by Mrs Merkel has yet last November ("The essence of the guarantee is that the guarantee is valid.") Guaranteed not to say that the people of this sleight of faith forever will pay. On the contrary, the longer the crisis, are broken, the more rights, and the more investors are fobbed off with zero interest rates from their banks, the more is the money printer column this world danger, the people's trust made in the by mouse click money to gamble final mass product.
Gold as a crisis barometer
But as gold as the ultimate crisis barometer too loudly about reality - purchasing power and confidence - could talk, Not afraid (s) bankers and politicians with their corporate media rapidly rising price of gold has always been like the plague. Therefore, when the gloss (price) of the precious metal to many "curious" attracts opened quickly the instrument case for the treatment of "patient." Was a possible manipulation of the gold market by governments and central banks sooner rather still fielded a conspiracy theory, this is now an open secret.
As early as 1993, when the gold price, after a long dry spell for the first time again crossed the USD 400 mark, "discovered" Wayne Angell, a former Fed governor, the issue of gold for themselves. He wished for a Fed Meeting (12/21/1993) - probably of Santa Claus - a gold ceiling price of 389 USD ("So I would prefer to say the price of gold at 389 USD for ounce is too high."), Which then was promptly of the "free" markets ... respected for several years.
A few years later, the reigning U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told before the U.S. Congress (July 1998) to be healing from the "gold fever" promising recipe for success: "[...] Central banks are always willing to lend large amounts of gold, should the price rise. "How pronounced but the willingness of the Fed to market intervention has been and still is, we had recently learned from the mouth of another former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who confirmed that" the central banks of a very large interest in the development of the gold price would have because he had a significant impact on the currency markets. Therefore, a government intervention at any juncture is justified! "
Good morning good morning ... Gold Silver
Dimitri Speck, author of "Secret monetary policy", the average intraday variation of the two precious metals gold and silver over now auswertete more than a decade of chart analysis leaves no doubt manipulated both the gold and the silver market systematically for years be.
Will crash a few minutes before high noon, when by 12 clock London time, so 7 clock, New York time, the day fixing the price of silver by only physical gold and silver trading London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is present, these days, to above-average number - hardly in shock - suddenly. Then in London by 15 clock (10 clock, New York time), the second gold fixing of the day prepared, can now also be gold - as luck would have it - no longer escape his fate early morning. Since these price movements are now watching just with those two paper money competitors where influential circles previously also expressed their "interest", it is clear that the gold and silver markets obviously systematically about the New York Derivatives Exchange COMEX (Commodity Exchange) down be specially treated. ...
It also appears among others, the banking giant JPMorgan Chase, the largest (systemic) Bank of the United States to have a particular interest (right) gold price. For only this institution plays with gold derivatives with a value of around U.S. $ 96.5 billion officially (74% share of U.S. gold derivatives) on the markets, which puts them all alone in the situation, a multiple of the physical market moving volumes traded.
How significant have become financial derivatives such as swaps, options and futures for pricing on the precious metals markets, the available figures documenting more than clear. Are the reported 130.5 billion derivatives positions of U.S. banks on gold taken for itself remarkable, so the end of 2011 even beyond the world only for gold, for example, reported OTC OTC derivatives volume reached 521.2 billion . USD truly incredible dimensions.
With this overall impressive "arsenal" is the "interested parties" certainly succeeded, headline-grabbing price jumps in precious metal prices, which would interest a broad group of investors can awaken to prevent broadly, but they were able to, even with massive manipulative interventions, the constant increase in gold price to prevent over the years.
Given the parlous state of the monetary system, it is the future not only does not exclude, but actually quite likely that gold in the seventies, when driven the price of the yellow metal in just ten years more than verzwanzigfachte, one day actually in a bubble is. Given the massive short selling of derivatives markets, the price of precious metals could be even slightly towards the sun are "hunted" as more and more investors from the derivatives that require alchemists, not what they can mean the physical delivery!
Gold is forbidden?
The author Malte Heynen, "... who set out to rescue his savings and discovered what really happens with our money" looks not to invest as well as many others, is an important reason in gold above all that gold as a medium of exchange in case of crisis anyway would be prohibited. This is definitely a serious argument, because governments that manipulate gold and financial markets and even prohibit the possession of bulbs is finally capable of anything. However, we consider both the likelihood and the merits of gold ownership ban today for rather low.
Gold ownership prohibitions existed in the history - on pain of death - in the dictatorships of Hitler, Mao and Stalin, but also what makes many worry under threat of a 10-year prison sentence from 1933 to 1974 in the country of limitless freedom, namely the USA, where the democratically elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt forced the population in 1933, their gold for a handful - to deliver dollars to the government - in god we trust.
But why Roosevelt decided at that time to such draconian measures against its own people? His time, was considered the gold still circulating cash, the stock market crash of 1929, the subsequent numerous bank failures and the profound economic crisis had undermined public confidence in the financial system so that U.S. citizens in particular to the Roosevelt 06th March 1933 arranged 4-day "bank holidays" so actually, began to draw the outstanding gold from circulation and it - better safe than sorry - hoarding at home or in Europe. Therein but the government was a major obstacle to a successful overcoming of catastrophic deflationary depression. In desperation, she decided to go under statement of the "national emergency" and to combat emergency "for banks and for other purposes", the "hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion and gold certificates" by the famous Executive Order 6102 from 01 May to prevent the 1933rd
But in contrast to that time, gold is now common in the population and hardly plays either as a means of payment in the international monetary system a direct role. Additionally, gold also has assets of 4.5% and only (debt) a small proportion of world finance, where a substantial part of it still lies with the banks themselves.
For those governments who wanted to prohibit the possession of gold really there in our time so little to gain but a lot to loose. Because such measures are now probably more likely undermine the already battered confidence of people in the monetary system only really, with the risk that the population then any State guarantee a la Merkel and Steinbrück immediately a real stress test - another escape in various tangible assets - could undergo.
There also arises the question of whether governments today really wanted to go with a gold ownership ban in the company of Mao, Hitler and Stalin, and on top of that prohibit even wedding rings, necklaces, dental gold or collectible coins would. Exactly what would be for the effective implementation of these measures mandatory, because gold is very common in the population give to a large extent in the form of jewelry. Did you change that but, even likely, that part of it would still go into the forbidden form, eg as a bullion or coin, learn a little later its legalization as a ring or just as an amulet in a "transformed" Krugerrand.
In addition, it is for the governments to the historical example of Germany (1924 and 1952) following a much simpler and a lot more rewarding, such as financial problems rather with the taxation of real estate assets (Germany: about 5 billion euros) want to solve than to try to recover with great effort a "gold profit expropriation" of probably only a few billion euros.
History shows in any case that there is also the threat, no matter how draconian punishments very difficult to force people to behave differently than they actually want. Gold property can perhaps forbid, but not the gold itself!
Gold remains a success story
Given the 6,000-year history of the gold must be assumed that the precious metal will continue to fulfill its mission in the future. It protects its owner, irrespective of their use as legal tender, before the fraud money from governments and preserved for its purchasing power - not more and not less
However, should gold regain its role as legal tender again, just as in the U.S. state of Utah already done and in intercessory studies of World Bank, IMF or the Deutsche Bank already outlined, gold is because of this then "rediscovered" - all-important - use function have undergone a complete re-evaluation.
But just as the final of the biggest money-debt bubble and the story ends, is currently still an open question. But Howard Buffett, U.S. Congressman and father of the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, but in 1948 its own vision. "Due to the economic strength of the United States, it may take until the end of the paper money experiment is achieved But when that day comes, our present government will probably find that a war abroad is smarter than an argument in their own country. This was the way out for the paper-money economy of Hitler and others. If human freedom is to survive, then it is no more important challenge than winning the fight for the restoration of honest money, that is the restoration of the gold standard. "